China’s population has fallen for the fourth consecutive year, reaching 1.4 billion by the end of 2025, with a notable decline of 3.39 million people. Birth rates have plummeted to their lowest since 1949, prompting concerns for the world’s second-largest economy as it grapples with an ageing population and a slowdown in birth rates.
This significant demographic shift raises alarms about the future workforce and economic stability in China, where low birth rates could further complicate existing social and economic issues, especially with an increasing number of seniors requiring support.
Key Developments
- Birth rate dropped to a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 individuals.
- Death rate increased to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest since 1968.
- The Chinese government implemented incentives, including financial support for families with young children.
- Criticism has emerged over a new tax on contraceptives, raising concerns about unintended pregnancies and public health.
- Experts from the UN predict that China’s population may decline by over 50% by 2100.
Full Report
Declining Birth Rates
The Chinese government has faced challenges in reversing the trend of declining birth rates. In 2016, it moved to abolish its one-child policy, initially introducing a two-child limit. The situation did not improve, leading to the allowance of a third child per couple in 2021. Despite these measures, birth rates have continued to decline, recently hitting a low that has not been seen since the Communist Party assumed control.
Government Incentives
To address this issue, Beijing has introduced various incentives, including a financial aid program offering 3,600 yuan (approximately $500) per child under three years of age. Several provinces have also begun to provide additional parental benefits, such as extended maternity leave. Nonetheless, there is growing discontent regarding a newly imposed 13% tax on contraceptives, leading to fears over unintended pregnancies and public health challenges.
Social Implications
The declining birth rate has raised concerns around the future economic landscape of China. With a dwindling workforce and a significant number of young adults opting for a lifestyle that prioritizes personal freedom over family, the country may face profound social challenges. Many young people express that raising children adds unnecessary pressure, leading to a reluctance to embrace parenthood.
Government Concerns
As more people move away from their parents, the country is witnessing a growing population of senior citizens who may lack adequate support. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has warned that the pension system is at risk of becoming unsustainable, further complicating the care landscape for the elderly population.
Context & Previous Events
China’s long-standing one-child policy was in effect until 2016, when it was replaced with the two-child policy. In 2021, to counter low birth rates, the government permitted families to have up to three children. Despite these policy shifts, societal attitudes towards childbirth and the financial implications of raising children have remained significant barriers to increasing birth rates.
