Unfulfilled Tariff Promises: What Trump Leave Behind as 2025 Approaches

As 2025 nears, President Donald Trump’s ambitious tariff proposals remain largely unexecuted, leading to an uncertain trade landscape. Despite issuing a series of significant tariff threats throughout the past year, many have yet to materialize, raising questions about the future of U.S. economic policy.

Why It Matters

The potential implementation of these tariffs affects not only international trade relations but also American consumers and businesses. The looming uncertainty stemming from unrealized promises could have widespread economic implications, particularly for industries reliant on imported goods and services.

Key Developments

• External Revenue Service: Trump announced plans for an External Revenue Service to handle tariffs and duties, but the agency is not yet established.
• 200% Tariff on European Alcohol: A threat to impose major tariffs on wines and spirits from the EU has not occurred, despite claims of retaliation.
• 100% Tariff on Foreign Films: Trump has persistently discussed levying tariffs on films produced outside the U.S., yet no such measures have been implemented.
• Pharmaceutical Tariffs: Promises of high tariffs on imported medications have not been acted upon, as no levies were signed into law by the anticipated deadlines.
• Computer Chip Tariffs: The proposed 100% tariff on semiconductors remains unrealized as of the latest updates.
• Tariff Dividend: Plans for a $2,000 dividend from tariff revenues for Americans are still vague, with budget experts suggesting the math may not support such proposals.

Full Report

External Revenue Service

In January, Trump expressed intentions to establish the External Revenue Service to collect tariffs and boost revenue from foreign sources. However, despite ongoing discussions in his administration, no steps have been taken to create this entity by the end of December.

200% Tariff on European Alcohol

In March, Trump announced a potential retaliatory tariff on wines and spirits from the EU, citing a 50% tariff on American whiskey as justification. Despite the vocal threats, no implementation has occurred, especially after the EU’s planned levy was postponed until 2025.

100% Tariff on Foreign Films

In May, Trump indicated he would impose a 100% tariff on films produced overseas. Although he made various statements reaffirming this intention, the White House has yet to finalize a decision on how such a tariff could be implemented.

Pharmaceutical Tariffs

During a Cabinet meeting in July, Trump hinted at substantial tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, stating a timeline of one to one-and-a-half years for implementation. By late September, he reiterated his intent but failed to sign the proposed tariffs by the promised deadline of October 1. Specific agreements with other countries have also complicated the tariff landscape for drugs.

Computer Chip Tariffs

In August, Trump stated plans for a 100% tariff on computer chips but did not provide specifics regarding its timeline or execution. As of now, the tariff has not been enacted, leaving stakeholders in the semiconductor industry in limbo.

Tariff Dividend

Later in the year, Trump promoted a $2,000 dividend for Americans, contingent upon tariff revenues. However, details regarding the dividend’s distribution, timing, and format remain unclear, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting it may not come as cash payments.

Context & Previous Events

Trump’s previous tariff threats have greatly influenced trade policy during his presidency. His administration has already enacted various tariffs—particularly on imported metals—which have cast a long shadow over consumer costs and economic stability worldwide. Many businesses remain uncertain as they navigate this evolving and often unpredictable tariff landscape.