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FAA Forecasts Busiest Thanksgiving Travel in 15 Years with Record Flights

2025-11-26
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U.S. Prepares for Record Thanksgiving Travel Season

With Thanksgiving around the corner, the U.S. is gearing up for what is projected to be one of the busiest travel seasons in recent years. Millions of Americans plan to traverse the nation, whether by road or air, to connect with family and friends for the holiday.

Why It Matters

This year’s travel surge reflects pent-up demand for holiday gatherings, exacerbated by past travel disruptions due to the pandemic. The high volume of travelers presents challenges for transportation infrastructure while raising safety concerns, particularly on the roads.

Key Developments

  • Travel Estimates: AAA anticipates that 81.8 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles for Thanksgiving, with 73 million opting for car travel.
  • Car Rentals: Wednesday is expected to be the busiest day for car rentals, particularly in Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark. Car rental rates are 15% lower than last year’s averages.
  • Gas Prices: According to GasBuddy, the national average for gasoline will remain stable at $3.02 per gallon, matching last year’s prices and marking the lowest Thanksgiving gas prices since the pandemic began.
  • Air Travel: The FAA expects over 360,000 flights during the Thanksgiving period, with November 25 being the peak travel day featuring more than 52,000 flights.
  • Safety Initiatives: AAA and Mothers Against Drunk Driving are reminding travelers to plan ahead for safe transportation if consuming alcohol during festivities.
  • Civility Campaign: The Department of Transportation has launched a "Golden Age of Travel" initiative, promoting respectful behavior among travelers during this busy season.

Full Report

Travel Demand

AAA’s estimates indicate a significant increase in holiday travel this year, driven by a desire to reunite with loved ones. The majority of travelers—73 million—are expected to travel by car, influenced by potential flight cancellations that may prompt travelers to opt for road trips.

Rental Market

Hertz, in partnership with AAA, reports that car rental demand will peak on Wednesday, November 22. Notably, car rental costs have decreased compared to last Thanksgiving, making driving a more attractive option for families.

Fuel Costs

Fuel prices remain stable, with predictions of a national average of $3.02 per gallon. This marks the lowest gas prices for Thanksgiving since 2021, when prices reached $3.39 a gallon.

Air Travel Outlook

Air travel is also expected to see significant increases, with the FAA managing over 360,000 flights during the holiday season. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford expressed confidence in the agency’s preparedness, emphasizing the dedication of air traffic controllers to maintain safety throughout the busy travel period.

Promoting Safety

In response to the increased travel volume, AAA along with MADD stress the importance of safety by encouraging designated drivers or rideshare options, aiming to mitigate risks associated with impaired driving.

Civility in Travel

Acknowledging the stress of holiday travel, the Department of Transportation is advocating for greater civility among travelers. The "Golden Age of Travel" campaign aims to encourage kindness and respect in airport and transit environments.

Context & Previous Events

Thanksgiving travel rates have fluctuated in previous years, with a significant decline during peak pandemic years. This year’s projected numbers reflect a return to traditional holiday travel levels, confirming a strong public desire for in-person gatherings.

As travelers prepare for the upcoming holiday, a blend of optimism and practical safety measures will characterize this year’s Thanksgiving travel experience.

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